Ensemble Machine Learning Models for Predicting Algae Bloom Using S_Chla

Aug 13, 2024, 11:41 AM

This a project work, can you create an interactive feature engineering from the dataset and build an ensemble machine learning models algorithms that predict the occurrence of algae bloom using the target variables S_Chla while the other variables are the features variables

The dataset has been successfully loaded. Here are the first few rows:

S_Chla	S_TN	S_TP	B_TP	B_pH	STP	SOM	RWCS	SWT_BWT	Zep	Zeu	WL	B_WT	S_WT	Sun_Hours	Mean_Air_T	Tmax	Tmin	Wind_Speed
10.193	4.352521	0.127507	0.153051	7.917086	0.625927	10.927641	8.238440	5.888828	2.268571	7.533477	160.981203	15.160209	21.049037	1.9	16.1	19.8	15	1.8
14.68925	2.043087	0.066261	0.100398	7.849232	0.638005	11.037111	7.681112	6.153457	3.001415	7.627959	160.957046	14.047879	20.201336	5.8	16.7	24.6	13	1.3
16.1095	2.146797	0.075932	0.138007	7.924626	0.551733	11.693926	8.671918	5.273832	2.133574	5.225745	160.425599	15.694984	20.968816	9.1	19.8	30.4	12.8	1.2
20.96675	2.670403	0.056053	0.096219	8.007559	0.648358	12.077068	10.251015	6.486884	0.089325	6.49358	160.184032	15.801939	22.288823	9.3	23.4	33	16.5	0.9
26.2755	2.339039	0.080767	0.047745	8.000019	0.653534	15.963227	13.842686	7.974416	0.166466	7.027406	160.014936	16.27254	24.246957	9.7	26.4	34.9	19.3	1.6

Next, let's proceed with feature engineering and building ensemble machine learning models to predict the occurrence of algae bloom using the target variable S_Chla.

The ensemble machine learning models have been trained and evaluated on the dataset to predict the occurrence of algae bloom using the target variable S_Chla. The models used were Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and AdaBoost. Here are the results:

Random Forest:
- Mean Squared Error (MSE): 2533.32
- R2 Score: 0.21
Gradient Boosting:
- Mean Squared Error (MSE): 3316.73
- R2 Score: -0.03
AdaBoost:
- Mean Squared Error (MSE): 2368.87
- R2 Score: 0.26

The AdaBoost model performed the best in terms of R2 Score, while the Random Forest model had a slightly higher MSE.

Feel free to ask any further questions or request additional analysis!

Can you perform hyperparameter tuning to improve the model performance?

The hyperparameter tuning has been completed for the ensemble models. Here are the best parameters and scores for each model:

Random Forest:
- Best Parameters: {'max_depth': None, 'min_samples_leaf': 4, 'min_samples_split': 2, 'n_estimators': 100}
- Best Cross-Validation Score: 0.20
Gradient Boosting:
- Best Parameters: {'learning_rate': 0.2, 'max_depth': 3, 'min_samples_leaf': 1, 'min_samples_split': 2, 'n_estimators': 100}
- Best Cross-Validation Score: 0.25
AdaBoost:
- Best Parameters: {'learning_rate': 0.1, 'n_estimators': 200}
- Best Cross-Validation Score: 0.20

Next, let's retrain the models using these best parameters and evaluate their performance on the test set.

The hyperparameter tuning has improved the performance of the models. Here are the results after tuning:

Random Forest:
- Mean Squared Error (MSE): 2066.44
- R2 Score: 0.36
Gradient Boosting:
- Mean Squared Error (MSE): 3964.52
- R2 Score: -0.23
AdaBoost:
- Mean Squared Error (MSE): 2146.95
- R2 Score: 0.33

The Random Forest model showed the best performance after hyperparameter tuning with the highest R2 Score and the lowest MSE.

Feel free to ask any further questions or request additional analysis!

Can you work on the dataset and performance exploratory data analysis AND clean the dataset to enhance the hyperparameters Tuning models performance to improve.

Sure! Let's start with exploratory data analysis (EDA) to understand the dataset better. We'll visualize the distributions of the features, check for missing values, and identify any potential outliers. After that, we'll clean the dataset to enhance the model performance.

The exploratory data analysis (EDA) has been performed. Here are the key findings:

Missing Values: The dataset does not contain any missing values, so no imputation is necessary.
Distributions: The distributions of the numerical features have been visualized. Some features show skewness, which might need transformation.
Correlation Matrix: The correlation matrix has been plotted to understand the relationships between the features. Some features show strong correlations, which might be useful for feature selection.

Next, let's proceed with cleaning the dataset and applying transformations to enhance the model performance.

The dataset has been cleaned and transformations have been applied to skewed features. The models were retrained with the best parameters obtained from hyperparameter tuning. Here are the updated results:

Random Forest:
- Mean Squared Error (MSE): 0.57
- R2 Score: 0.40
Gradient Boosting:
- Mean Squared Error (MSE): 0.66
- R2 Score: 0.31
AdaBoost:
- Mean Squared Error (MSE): 0.63
- R2 Score: 0.35

The Random Forest model continues to show the best performance with the highest R2 Score and the lowest MSE after data cleaning and transformation.

Feel free to ask any further questions or request additional analysis!

Can you perform cross-validation to further validate the model performance?

The cross-validation results for each model are as follows:

Random Forest:
- Mean R2 Score: -0.46
- Standard Deviation: 0.98
Gradient Boosting:
- Mean R2 Score: -1.09
- Standard Deviation: 0.98
AdaBoost:
- Mean R2 Score: -0.59
- Standard Deviation: 0.99

The negative R2 scores indicate that

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